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Sea-Level Rise and the Chesapeake Bay

Photo of ducks preening

Our latest report, Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Habitats of the Chesapeake Bay, shows in vivid detail the dramatic effects of sea-level rise on the nation's largest estuary, which sustains more than 3,600 species of plants, fish and animals including great blue herons and sea turtles.

If global warming continues unabated, projected rising sea levels will significantly reshape the region's coastal landscape, threatening waterfowl hunting and recreational saltwater fishing in Virginia and Maryland

See how sea-level rise will impact Chesapeake Bay habitats. Click each region below to view a sea-level rise animation and download a PDF of the maps:

Delaware Bay Delaware Bay Maryland Shore Maryland Shore Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge Tangier Sound Tangier Sound Virginia's Eastern Shore Virginia's Eastern Shore Upper Tidewater Region Upper Tidewater Region Lower Tidewater Region Lower Tidewater Region Clickable map of the Chesapeake Bay that allows you to see sea level rise maps for each area

Habitats at Risk

Graph showing Chesapeake Bay habitats that will decrease the most due to sea-level rise

Coastal habitats in the Chesapeake Bay region will be dramatically altered if sea levels rise globally about two feet by the end of the century, which is at the low end of what is predicted if global warming pollution remains unaddressed. Under this scenario, the region would lose:

  • More than 167,000 acres of undeveloped dry land
  • 58% of beaches along ocean coasts
  • 69% of estuarine beaches along the bay
  • 161,000 acres of brackish marsh
  • More than half of the region’s important tidal swamp

These important wetland habitats would be replaced in part by over 266,000 acres (415.6 square miles) of newly open water and 50,000 acres of saltmarsh.

Wildlife At Risk

Photo of a canvasback duck

The Chesapeake Bay provides critical stopover and wintering habitat for more than one million migratory waterfowl, including the canvasback, mallard, redhead, American black duck, tundra swan, and Canada goose.

The bay’s coastal marshes are home to great blue heron, snowy egret, and other familiar birds, and they provide important food sources and nesting sites for numerous songbirds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians.

Photo of a blue crab

The region’s beaches support some of the largest populations of shorebirds in the western hemisphere such as red knot and piping plover, and are a critical nesting site for sea turtles.

And, of course, the Chesapeake Bay sustains recreational and commercial fisheries worth billions of dollars annually, including popular blue crab, rockfish, menhaden, and eastern oyster.

In May 2008, NWF completed a modeling analysis of how Chesapeake Bay habitats will be affected by sea-level rise in the coming century:
(All are PDFs - PDF help)

Sea Level Rise
12 page summary (589 Kb)
or
Technical Report (10.3 Mb)


In September 2007, NWF analyzed the many global warming impacts on the Chesapeake Bay:
(All are PDFs - PDF help)

Global Warming and Habitats
4 page summary (269 Kb)
or
Full Report (1.5 Mb)



Take Action
Button that says What Citizens Can Do
Button that says What Coastal Managers Can Do
Climate is changing in the Chesapeake Bay region:
  • With its expansive coastline, low-lying topography, and growing coastal population, the Chesapeake Bay region is among the places in the nation most vulnerable to sea-level rise.

  • Average sea levels in the Chesapeake Bay have been rising. Many places along the bay have seen a one-foot increase in relative sea-level rise over the 20th century, six inches due to global warming and another six inches due to naturally subsiding coastal lands — a factor that places the Chesapeake Bay region at particular risk.

  • Already, at least 13 islands in the bay have disappeared entirely, and many more are at risk of being lost soon.

  • Sea-level rise in the Chesapeake Bay region could reach 17 to 28 inches above 1990 levels by 2095.

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