Wacky Weather in a Warming World

Amanda Staudt, Ph.D., NWF Climate Scientist
July 28, 2008

Last spring, my son's school had "Wacky Wednesday" when children wore something unusual to school: mismatched clothes, pajamas, silly hats, you name it. The break in routine was refreshing and exciting.

The parade of wacky weather that I study, however, is anything but refreshing. It’s now bordering on alarming. Nearly every month another unprecedented weather-related event devastates communities in America and worldwide.

Just this year, we've had widespread flooding in the Midwest, extensive wildfires in Northern California, and record snowfall in many cities. Extended drought last summer affected 29 percent of the contiguous United States, cost more than $5 billion, and was punctuated by severe heat waves in August. That same month, Hurricane Dean struck Mexico as the third strongest Atlantic hurricane at landfall, just two years after the record 2005 hurricane season.

What's the explanation for this apparent dramatic upswing in weather-related catastrophes? Is this weather really that wacky?

There's no doubt that the growing population is increasingly vulnerable to severe weather, because people reside in more exposed areas. With 55 percent of Americans living adjacent to coasts, and urban and agricultural development right at the edge of rivers and forests, record economic losses from major weather events are not surprising.

But research indicates that global warming is also an important part of the big picture. The facts are that:

1. extreme weather and climate events – heavy rain and snowfall, hurricanes, heat waves, droughts, and wildfires – are becoming more severe and more common in the United States and worldwide;

2. these trends can be explained in part by well documented and well understood human-caused global warming; and

3. these trends will continue for the foreseeable future unless we take action to reverse our dependence on fossil fuels.

It’s clear that a warming climate exacerbates severe weather, even though no single weather event can be blamed on global warming alone.

But don’t take my word for it. The Bush Administration’s U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP), working with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), recently gathered the latest scientific research in its report, Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. The report's conclusion:

"In the future, with continued global warming, heat waves and heavy downpours are very likely to further increase in frequency and intensity. Substantial areas of North America are likely to have more frequent droughts of greater severity. Hurricane wind speeds, rainfall intensity, and storm surge levels are likely to increase. The strongest cold season storms are likely to become more frequent, with stronger winds and more extreme wave heights."

A separate report issued in May by the CCSP, working with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, The Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture, Land Resources, Water Resources, and Biodiversity in the United States, concluded:

"Increased incidence of disturbances such as forest fires, insect outbreaks, severe storms, and drought will command public attention and place increasing demands on management resources."

So, what can we do? We must immediately reduce our dependence on fossil fuels, transitioning to a clean energy future and reducing global warming pollution. Because our climate is already changing and global warming pollution stays in the atmosphere for decades, we must also adjust our strategies to manage our coasts, floodplains, and forests in a warming world.

Many of us thought these changes were far off, but in reality, wacky weather will be commonplace in my son’s lifetime, unless we take swift action to reverse the course of global warming. Congress can prepare the strong global warming legislation that’s needed urgently, so that it will be ready for the next president to sign into law.

Do your part to help reduce global warming by taking the Good Neighbor Pledge today. Help cool the planet one home at a time!