Updated Economic Estimates of Effects of Leasing on Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Coastal Plain

• Richard A. Fineberg – Research Associates
• Feb 06, 2006

Despite extensive press coverage and political attention to the ongoing debate about whether or not to explore for oil on the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, the argument is frequently characterized by inaccurate and misleading numbers, uncertainties inherent in the key long-term economic projections and failure to recognize the limited role the Arctic Refuge can play in resolving this nation’s increasing dependence on crude oil imports. To assist policy makers in resolving confusion resulting from inaccurate information on this important public policy debate, this report seeks to ensure that information used in formulating decisions on this important public policy issue is accurate, to provide relevant data and to place those data in an appropriate context. The principal issues addressed here include:

• Revenue anticipated from lease bonus bids for exploration and development rights to the Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain;
• the amount of oil that might be discovered and produced from the Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain, compared to long-term domestic petroleum consumption needs, domestic production and imports; and
• effects of Arctic Refuge development on jobs nationwide.

This report updates effects of high oil prices on each of these fundamental questions through examination of relevant data released by government agencies in recent months.